China and India are unlikely to make progress on any final resolution of their border disputes in the near or medium term. "While Chinese commercial loans and currency swap arrangements have contributed towards national efforts at reviving growth, they risk increasing already large bilateral trade deficits with China and unfavourable debt dynamics," said Dr Ganeshan Wignaraja, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore. China has been the largest relief provider during Covid-19, noted Mr Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, a geopolitical analyst and author in Sri Lanka. Connect Such visits are the culmination of bilateral ties that have grown since 2014. Daniel Markey, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Washington might also find a way to engage the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, perhaps by accrediting the U.S. ambassador to Bangladesh as a representative to the organization. Randall G. Schriver, The Project 2049 Institute, co-chair 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have both agreed to manufacture Sinopharm, with the latter getting more than 26 million doses of the vaccine separately. China's Influence in South Asia: In South Asia, the CCP aims to expand its economic activity and influence, enhance its strategic presence, secure overland energy routes to avoid maritime chokepoints, and check India's rise through strategic encirclement. Creative procurement options, such as equipment leases, to fill critical gaps should be explored. South Korea's KADIZ was first established in 1950 and most recently adjusted by Seoul in 2013. Those arrangements are designed to contrast with the liberalizing conditions that accompany Western development assistance. Publications The United States and China both see South Asia as important, although neither considers the region its top geopolitical priority. Elsewhere, elites are prone to capture, including by external actors, such as China and its proxies. After the KADIZ flyover, Seoul said a Russian A-50 flew above the contested islands first at 9.09 a . The summit was Xis first in-person opportunity to win support outside of Chinas borders for his new Global Security Initiative (GSI), which he launched in April. China's economic footprint in South Asia is increasing, as are its political, security, and interpersonal ties. NEW DELHI - Early this month, Nepal's minister of state for health Umesh Shrestha announced that half of the country's population had received Sinopharm, the Chinese Covid-19 vaccine, or 149 million doses in total. Washington should support Indias aspiration to become a world leader in artificial intelligence by encouraging deeper collaboration with U.S. technology companies and universities and providing access to some restricted technologies. Search for experts, projects, publications, courses, and more. Abdul Momen responded within a day, reminding China that Bangladesh was free to make its own foreign policy choices and to pursue alignments and relationships in its interest. Beijing favors a peace process and political resolution to the conflict. Wednesday, December 16, 2020 The Sino-Indian border area will continue to be a major flash point. These include combating COVID-19, countering violent extremist groups in Afghanistan (though again, these efforts would be hamstrung by Chinas repressive Xinjiang policies), managing natural resources (especially water), preventing and adapting to climate change, countering narcotics, and caring for displaced and refugee populations. The total GDP of the Central Asian states combined equaled 10.29% of China's in 1992. Officials in Beijing are driven by aspirations of leadership across their home continent of Asia, feelings of being hemmed in on their eastern flank by U.S. alliances, and their perception that opportunities await across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Myanmar's coup leader and de facto head of state, General Min Aung Hlaing, has paid two visits to Russia in 2022. The group members drew from their deep individual experiences working in and advising the U.S. government to generate a set of focused, actionable policy recommendations. China has embarked on a grand journey west. Chinese leader Xi Jinping cemented himself as "clearly the most powerful ruler in China since Mao" at the recent National Party Congress. November 04, 2022 The United States needs to change its diplomatic approach toward the region to make its policy less about responding to China and more about engaging with states in South Asia to resolve problems. Correspondingly, state actors in the focus countries have exercised their agency in keeping their national interest in mind while dealing with China. Chinese actors are proactive in seeking opportunities, often approaching public or private stakeholders with suggestions for engagement, and timing project completion to coincide with upcoming elections. Grants & Fellowships Chinas growing focus on a blue-water navy and power projection to the far seas has followed its economic interests. In countries where China exerts a strong influence, its engagement can have a substantial impact on local and international efforts to curb violence and extremism. The Beijing's Global Media Influence 2022 report, which was released last week, examined 30 territories in terms of the intensity of China's media influence efforts from early 2019 until the . Meanwhile, the United States has mostly backed Indias position in flare-ups along the Line of Control and New Delhis responses to terrorist attacks in India traced to Pakistan. But monitoring implementation details will be crucial, and additional actions will likely prove necessary to ensure South Asian economies can avoid the worst potential outcomes. During his previous term, Lula focused on "South-South cooperation," aiming to increase the influence of emerging states like Brazil and India in global governance. By: All rights reserved. Likewise, the countries under study are still figuring out how Beijing thinks. Each week, USIP expertstackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world. The summit was Xis first in-person opportunity to win support outside of Chinas borders for his new Global Security Initiative (GSI), which he launched in April. More than a year after the worldwide outbreak of Covid-19, South Asia accounts for over 11 percent of global cases and 6 percent of coronavirus deaths. The China-Pakistan axis. The reality is that China has been emboldened to assert its interests in South Asia more directly because of profound changes in its relationships with states in the region. This has left an incomplete picture of Chinese engagement, because it misses the degree to which South Asian states are trying to manage and mitigate the impacts of Chinese influence that they view as inimical to their interests, even as they continue to develop political, military, and especially commercial ties with Chinese actors. Washington should leverage its observer and dialogue partner statuses in regional institutions such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, the Indian Ocean Rim Association, and the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission to closely track developments related to regional political and economic integration. the largest relief provider during Covid-19. India and China compete in South Asia to offer technical assistance and investments in infrastructure. Washington should work to prove the notion that accountable, democratic governance offers the best path to sustainable growth, political and social stability, and preventing foreign interference in sovereign states. These efforts have successfully created a reservoir of goodwill among the public, which looks at the US and India through a more cynical lens. Patrick Cronin, Hudson Institute Publications U.S.-Pakistan relations need to be rebalanced to focus more on enhancing economic ties and people-to-people interactions and less on security assistance and operational access issues. U.S. policymakers should make clear to leaders in New Delhi the U.S. view that Indias democratic systemincluding respect for pluralism and human rightsis a strategic asset that facilitates Indias natural alignment with the United States and other democratic states around the world. On Peace is a weekly podcast . Other analysts also believe that increased exposure to China came with risks. From civil wars in neighboring countries, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, to more distant conflicts in Africa, China is becoming an increasingly important player in regional and international efforts to mitigate conflict. According to reports filed to the Justice Department under the U.S. Foreign Agents . Summary. The report entitled "China's Influence in South Asia: Vulnerabilities and Resilience in Four Countries" noted that the pandemic has exposed shortcomings in public healthcare capacities in South . One local stakeholder pointed out the persistence in extending invitations to visit China, overwhelming Sri Lankans to the point where they would agree to attend. A constructive working relationship between Washington and Islamabad is in both countries interests and should persist given nuclear and terrorism threats emanating from the region. The SSG's final report the fourth in a seriesexamines China's influence in South Asian conflict zones and fragile states from a variety of angles. The relationship, though, will necessarily evolve from its Cold War and post-9/11 roots, in which the two states attempted strategic convergence, not always successfully. This paper builds on the research carried out through focus groups, extensive interviews, and detailed archival analysis and media mapping in four South Asian states Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka to learn from their rapidly evolving relationships with China, as well as explore the impact of Chinese influence cross-nationally and comparatively. These divergences account for the dissonance and diplomatic faux pas that are often visible. Because of this, Sri Lanka has felt compelled to diversify its sources of capital, turning substantially toward international bond markets. On Afghanistan, China and the United States have common goals of stopping the spread of international terrorism and reaching a political settlement to bring an end to decades of violent conflict, though how they try to achieve these goals differs in practice. Elsewhere, political parties have resisted giving in to Chinas attempts at increasing engagement with them. which stalled due to heightened domestic demand, India losing ground in its Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy plan in South Asia, China offers South Asian countries help with accessing Covid-19 shots, India counters China's rising influence in region with $952 million Sri Lanka port deal, Infrastructure wars: China reinvents Belt and Road in pandemic era. Smaller South Asian stateswhich have their own interests and the agency to pursue themboth face competitive pressures to align with powerful states and have more opportunities to play major powers off one another. EVERYTHING WILL BE OKAY" read the t-shirt . The CPEC faces many obstacles and its visions remain largely unfulfilled, but Chinas commitment remains durable, particularly given the reputational risks of letting the BRIs flagship corridor fail and Beijings increasing determination to balance India. "Apart from infrastructure diplomacy, China is engaged in vaccine diplomacy, being the largest Covid-19 relief provider in Sri Lanka," said Mr Abeyagoonasekera. But strategic pressure from Beijing will likely make the case in New Delhi for bolder moves, such as hastening the modernization of Indias military, conducting joint military exercises, making the U.S.-Australia-Japan-India Quad militarily effective, and expanding intelligence cooperation and military interoperability to get closer to Washington and other democratic partners. In recent years, China has expanded its efforts beyond its near neighborhood and into the United States. China and the Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia from Asia Program China and the Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia To support its allies and partners in South Asia, the. By: Sheena Greitens, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Home to about 2 billion people, South Asia has become a strategic focal point for China's growing global influence. This century has been proclaimed the Asian century, as industrialised countries such as Japan, Singapore, and South Korea, along with rapidly emerging nations such China and India, have contributed to worldwide economic growth. No. Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka showcase the diversity of China's engagement strategies in a very multidimensional region but also make clear that influencers across South Asia are learning from each other's experiences with Chinese money and power. December 30, 2020 Much to India's frustration, China's influence is on the rise across South Asia. The reality is that China has been emboldened to assert its interests in South Asia more directly because of profound changes in its relationships with states in the region. "China has never sought to influence the domestic politics of Sri Lanka," claims one highly regarded former foreign minister of Sri Lanka. It has invested heavily in major infrastructure, from roads to railways, provided a mix of grants and aid, and has also become active in wooing political parties and, on the odd occasion, stepping in to offer help during times of political crisis, like in Nepal. "The pandemic has created opportunities for China to work directly with the four countries in new ways on the provision of medical equipment, biomedical expertise, and capital for coronavirus-related needs," the report added. Over the past decade, it has developed a greater variety of interests and more connections than ever. Debt suspension measures that G20 states, including China, recently committed to provide a good start. 2022 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Yet bilateral tension and mutual suspicion about each others activities in the region restrict the prospects for sustained cooperation beyond rhetoric. On Peaceis a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. To the southeast, the demographic and cultural influence of South Asia is felt in Central Asia, notably in Tibet, the Hindu Kush, and slightly beyond. In an era of heightened strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing, Xis GSI campaign could amount to yet another challenge to the U.S.-China relationship and the two countries ability to peacefully manage differences. By: In the event of crises between India and Pakistan, hoping for active cooperation with Beijing is less promising than seeking ways to offset any harmful actions China might take. Projects Vietnam and China have long-standing commercial ties, but the territorial dispute has strained their complex relationship. For its part, New Delhi worries about encirclement by Beijing. USIPs Jacob Stokes says to properly counterbalance Beijing in the region, the United States should focus less about responding to China and more engaging with the states of South Asia.. The recommendations are also directed toward the US and its strategic partners to help strengthen these states independence of action, bargaining power, and development. Dave Rank, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University Press The Carnegie report found that "China's tools of influence are varied and are wielded depending on the extent of its engagement in a country, on the robustness of that country's institutions, and China's personal relationships with key regime actors". Blog, The United States Institute of Peace Legal and Privacy Information | FOIA Inquiries, Andrew Scobell on Chinas National Party Congress, China After the Party Congress: Welcome to Xis Peoples Republic of Control, Xi Kicks Off Campaign for a Chinese Vision of Global Security, Beijings Strategy for Asserting Its Party Rule by Law Abroad, China's message to US: Ties with Pakistan none of your business - Dawn, Russia turns to North Korea for military artillery in Ukraine invasion - Sinclair Media, Why Biden isnt changing course on North Korea - POLITICO, Experts, officials upbeat about Pakistan-US ties post-Afghan war - The Express Tribune. Along the way, their first stop is South Asia, which this report defines as comprising eight countriesAfghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lankaalong with the Indian Ocean (particularly the eastern portions but with implications for its entirety). In South Asia, China has encountered a dynamic region marked by as many endemic problems as enticing opportunities. Ultimately, the paper hopes to offer policy recommendations that aid the countries in discouraging unproductive Chinese actions and influences, while engendering the kind of engagement that is in their interest. In recent years, it has started co-ordinating events and funding people-to-people organisations such as the Sri Lanka-China Friendship Association and the Sri Lanka-China Youth Friendship Association. At the same time, however, debt distress will be a major concern across the region, particularly given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sajit Gandhi, House Foreign Affairs Committee, Democratic Staff Last year, Bangladesh refused to co-finance an experimental Chinese Covid-19 vaccine developed by Sinovac Biotech. Major Chinese investments in Pakistan are less harmful to U.S. interests than they could be in other places and are likely to result in blowback against Chinese interests eventually. All four countries have distinctive vulnerabilities. In addition, it should leverage smart visa policies by restoring and expanding professional (H-1B) and student visas from South Asia to attract the best talent to bolster U.S. development of cutting-edge technology, to deepen economic integration and influence, and to boost Americas favorable image in the region. Addressing China's Influence in South Asia Watch on In recent years, China's engagement in South Asia has expanded significantly beyond commercial and development projects to encompass political and security interests. Washington should work to apply principled, consistent pressure on those parties to cease abuses and uphold democratic laws and norms. Russian arms and influence in Myanmar. Inviting allies and partners to join the Blue Dot Network initiative could be an option to further that agenda. Chinas approach toward India-Pakistan disputes increasingly favors Pakistan rather than adopts a more neutral stance, in part because backing Pakistan helps China constrain Indian power in Asia. A man receiving a dose of the Chinese-made Sinopharm vaccine in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Sept 21, 2021. aid from Beijing has outstripped that provided by India. Early in 2021, the new administration should commission a National Intelligence Estimate of Chinas maritime activities in the Indian Ocean and its rimland areas, including both commercial and military moves. Although it wants to avoid taking on the burden of Pakistans problems, Beijing is also heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the potential crown jewel of the BRI and an overland transit route to the Indian Ocean. 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